A new Rothamsted long-term field experiment for the twenty-first century: principles and practice.

Agriculture faces potentially competing societal demands to produce food, fiber and fuel while reducing negative environmental impacts and delivering regulating, supporting and cultural ecosystem services. This necessitates a new generation of long-term agricultural field experiments designed to study the behavior of contrasting cropping systems in terms of multiple outcomes. We document the principles and practices of a new long-term experiment of this type at Rothamsted, established at two contrasting sites in 2017 and 2018, and report initial yield data at the crop and system level. The objective of the Large-Scale Rotation Experiment was to establish gradients of system properties and outcomes to improve our fundamental understanding of UK cropping systems. It is composed of four management factors-phased rotations, cultivation (conventional vs reduced tillage), nutrition (additional organic amendment vs standard mineral fertilization) and crop protection (conventional vs smart crop protection). These factors were combined in a balanced design resulting in 24 emergent cropping systems at each site and can be analyzed at the level of the system or component management factors. We observed interactions between management factors and with the environment on crop yields, justifying the systems level, multi-site approach. Reduced tillage resulted in lower wheat yields but the effect varied with rotation, previous-crop and site. Organic amendments significantly increased spring barley yield by 8% on average though the effect again varied with site. The plowed cropping systems tended to produce higher caloric yield overall than systems under reduced tillage. Additional response variables are being monitored to study synergies and trade-offs with outcomes other than yield at the cropping system level. The experiment has been established as a long-term resource for inter-disciplinary research. By documenting the design process, we aim to facilitate the adoption of similar approaches to system-scale agricultural experimentation to inform the transition to more sustainable cropping systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00914-8.

Can the soil seed bank of Rumex obtusifolius in productive grasslands be explained by management and soil properties?

Rumex obtusifolius is a problematic weed in temperate grasslands worldwide as it decreases yield and nutritional value of forage. Because the species can recruit from the seed bank, we determined the effect of management and soil properties on the soil seed bank of R. obtusifolius in intensively managed, permanent grasslands in Switzerland (CH), Slovenia (SI), and United Kingdom (UK). Following a paired case-control design, soil cores were taken from the topsoil of grassland with a high density of R. obtusifolius plants (cases) and from nearby parcels with very low R. obtusifolius density (controls). Data on grassland management, soil nutrients, pH, soil texture, and density of R. obtusifolius plants were also collected. Seeds in the soil were germinated under optimal conditions in a glasshouse. The number of germinated seeds of R. obtusifolius in case parcels was 866 ±152 m-2 (CH, mean ±SE), 628 ±183 m-2 (SI), and 752 ±183 m-2 (UK), with no significant difference among countries. Densities in individual case parcels ranged from 0 up to approximately 3000 seeds m-2 (each country). Control parcels had significantly fewer seeds, with a mean of 51 ±18, 75 ±52, and 98 ±52 seeds m-2 in CH, SI, and UK, respectively, and a range between 0 and up to 1000 seeds m-2. Across countries, variables explaining variation in the soil seed bank of R. obtusifolius in case parcels were soil pH (negative relation), silt content (negative), land-use intensity (negative), and aboveground R. obtusifolius plant density (positive). Because a large soil seed bank can sustain grassland infestation with R. obtusifolius, management strategies to control the species should target the reduction in the density of mature plants, prevention of the species' seed production and dispersal, as well as the regulation of the soil pH to a range optimal for forage production.

Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland.

The management of climate-resilient grassland systems is important for stable livestock fodder production. In the face of climate change, maintaining productivity while minimizing yield variance of grassland systems is increasingly challenging. To achieve climate-resilient and stable productivity of grasslands, a better understanding of the climatic drivers of long-term trends in yield variance and its dependence on agronomic inputs is required. Based on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK), we report for the first time the long-term trends in yield variance of grassland (1965-2018) in plots given different fertilizer and lime applications, with contrasting productivity and plant species diversity. We implemented a statistical model that allowed yield variance to be determined independently of yield level. Environmental abiotic covariates were included in a novel criss-cross regression approach to determine climatic drivers of yield variance and its dependence on agronomic management. Our findings highlight that sufficient liming and moderate fertilization can reduce yield variance while maintaining productivity and limiting loss of plant species diversity. Plots receiving the highest rate of nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure had the highest yield but were also more responsive to environmental variability and had less plant species diversity. We identified the days of water stress from March to October and temperature from July to August as the two main climatic drivers, explaining approximately one-third of the observed yield variance. These drivers helped explain consistent unimodal trends in yield variance-with a peak in approximately 1995, after which variance declined. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel statistical framework and a unique long-term dataset for understanding the trends in yield variance of managed grassland. The application of the criss-cross regression approach in other long-term agro-ecological trials could help identify climatic drivers of production risk and to derive agronomic strategies for improving the climate resilience of cropping systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w.

The effect of soil type on yield and micronutrient content of pasture species.

The use of multispecies swards on livestock farms is growing due to the wide range of benefits they bring, such as improved biomass yield and animal performance. Preferential uptake of micronutrients by some plant species means the inclusion of legumes and forbs in grass-dominated pasture swards could improve micronutrient provision to livestock via careful species selection. However, although soil properties affect plant micronutrient concentrations, it is unknown whether choosing 'best-performing' species, in terms of their micronutrient content, needs to be soil-specific or whether the recommendations can be more generic. To address this question, we carried out an experiment with 15 common grass, forb and legume species grown on four soils for five weeks in a controlled environment. The soils were chosen to have contrasting properties such as texture, organic matter content and micronutrient concentrations. The effect of soil pH was tested on two soils (pH 5.4 and 7.4) chosen to minimise other confounding variables. Yield was significantly affected by soil properties and there was a significant interaction with botanical group but not species within a botanical group (grass, forb or legume). There were differences between botanical groups and between species in both their micronutrient concentrations and total uptake. Micronutrient herbage concentrations often, but not always, reflected soil micronutrient concentrations. There were soil-botanical group interactions for micronutrient concentration and uptake by plants, but the interaction between plant species (within a botanical group) and soil was significant only for forbs, and predominantly occurred when considering micronutrient uptake rather than concentration. Generally, plants had higher yields and micronutrient contents at pH 5.4 than 7.4. Forbs tended to have higher concentrations of micronutrients than other botanical groups and the effect of soil on micronutrient uptake was only significant for forbs.

Communicating carabids: Engaging farmers to encourage uptake of integrated pest management.

BACKGROUND: Natural enemy pest control is becoming more desirable as restrictions increase on pesticide use. Carabid beetles are proven agents of natural-enemy pest control (NPC), controlling pests and weeds in crop areas. Agro-ecological measures can be effective for boosting carabid abundance and associated NPC, but the benefits of specific interventions to production are seldom communicated to farmers. We explore pathways to improved NPC by engaging farmers and increasing knowledge about farm management practices (FMPs) beneficial to carabids using engagement materials. We used a questionnaire to measure awareness, beliefs and attitudes to carabids and analysed these within a framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), relative to a control group. RESULTS: We found awareness of carabid predation to be associated with beliefs of pest and weed control efficacy. Within the framework of TPB, we found that current implementation of FMPs was higher if farmers perceived them to be both important for carabids and easy to implement. This was also true for future intention to implement, yet the perceived importance was influenced by engagement materials. Field margins/buffer strips and beetle banks (16% and 13% of responses) were the most favoured by farmers as interventions for carabids. CONCLUSION: The TPB is a valuable tool with which to examine internal elements of farmer behaviour. In this study self-selected participants were influenced by online engagement in a single intervention, proving this approach has the potential to change behaviour. Our results are evidence for the effectiveness of raising awareness of NPC to change attitudes and increase uptake of sustainable practices.

Agricultural intensification and climate change have increased the threat from weeds.

Weeds represent a significant threat to crop yields and global food security. We analysed data on weed competition from the world's longest running agricultural experiment to ask whether potential yield losses from weeds have increased in response to management and environmental change since the advent of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. On plots where inorganic nitrogen fertiliser has been applied, potential yield losses from weeds have consistently increased since 1969. This was explained by a warming climate, measured as air temperature averaged over the growing season for the weeds, and a shift towards shorter crop cultivars. Weeds also reduced yield proportionally more on plots with higher rates of nitrogen which had higher yields when weeds were controlled; the relative benefit of herbicides was, therefore, proportional to potential crop yield. Reducing yield losses from weed competition is increasingly challenging because of the evolution of herbicide resistance. Our results demonstrate that weeds now represent a greater inherent threat to crop production than before the advent of herbicides and integrated, sustainable solutions to weed management are urgently needed to protect the high yield potential of modern crop genotypes.

Using functional traits to model annual plant community dynamics.

Predicting the response of biological communities to changes in the environment or management is a fundamental pursuit of community ecology. Meeting this challenge requires the integration of multiple processes: habitat filtering, niche differentiation, biotic interactions, competitive exclusion, and stochastic demographic events. Most approaches to this long-standing problem focus either on the role of the environment, using trait-based filtering approaches, or on quantifying biotic interactions with process-based community dynamics models. We introduce a novel approach that uses functional traits to parameterize a process-based model. By combining the two approaches we make use of the extensive literature on traits and community filtering as a convenient means of reducing the parameterization requirements of a complex population dynamics model whilst retaining the power to capture the processes underlying community assembly. Using arable weed communities as a case study, we demonstrate that this approach results in predictions that show realistic distributions of traits and that trait selection predicted by our simulations is consistent with in-field observations. We demonstrate that trait-based filtering approaches can be combined with process-based models to derive the emergent distribution of traits. While initially developed to predict the impact of crop management on functional shifts in weed communities, our approach has the potential to be applied to other annual plant communities if the generality of relationships between traits and model parameters can be confirmed.

Ecological Specialization and Rarity of Arable Weeds: Insights from a Comprehensive Survey in France.

: The definition of "arable weeds" remains contentious. Although much attention has been devoted to specialized, segetal weeds, many taxa found in arable fields also commonly occur in other habitats. The extent to which adjacent habitats are favorable to the weed flora and act as potential sources of colonizers in arable fields remains unclear. In addition, weeds form assemblages with large spatiotemporal variability, so that many taxa in weed flora are rarely observed in plot-based surveys. We thus addressed the following questions: How often do weeds occur in other habitats than arable fields? How does including field edges extend the taxonomic and ecological diversity of weeds? How does the weed flora vary across surveys at different spatial and temporal scales? We built a comprehensive dataset of weed taxa in France by compiling weed flora, lists of specialized segetal weeds, and plot-based surveys in agricultural fields, with different spatial and temporal coverages. We informed life forms, biogeographical origins and conservation status of these weeds. We also defined a broader dataset of plants occupying open habitats in France and assessed habitat specialization of weeds and of other plant species absent from arable fields. Our results show that many arable weeds are frequently recorded in both arable fields and non-cultivated open habitats and are, on average, more generalist than species absent from arable fields. Surveys encompassing field edges included species also occurring in mesic grasslands and nitrophilous fringes, suggesting spill-over from surrounding habitats. A total of 71.5% of the French weed flora was not captured in plot-based surveys at regional and national scales, and many rare and declining taxa were of Mediterranean origin. This result underlines the importance of implementing conservation measures for specialist plant species that are particularly reliant on arable fields as a habitat, while also pointing out biotic homogenization of agricultural landscapes as a factor in the declining plant diversity of farmed landscapes. Our dataset provides a reference species pool for France, with associated ecological and biogeographical information.

Weeds: Against the Rules?

Establishing laws of plant and ecosystems functioning has been an overarching objective of functional and evolutionary ecology. However, most theories neglect the role of human activities in creating novel ecosystems characterized by species assemblages and environmental factors that are not observed in natural systems. We argue that agricultural weeds, as an emblematic case of such an 'ecological novelty', constitute an original and underutilized model for challenging current concepts in ecology and evolution. We highlight key aspects of weed ecology and evolutionary biology that can help to test and recast ecological and evolutionary laws in a changing world. We invite ecologists to seize upon weeds as a model system to improve our understanding of the short-term and long-term dynamics of ecological systems in the Anthropocene.

Plant-microbe networks in soil are weakened by century-long use of inorganic fertilizers.

Understanding the changes in plant-microbe interactions is critically important for predicting ecosystem functioning in response to human-induced environmental changes such as nitrogen (N) addition. In this study, the effects of a century-long fertilization treatment (> 150 years) on the networks between plants and soil microbial functional communities, detected by GeoChip, in grassland were determined in the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK. Our results showed that plants and soil microbes have a consistent response to long-term fertilization-both richness and diversity of plants and soil microbes are significantly decreased, as well as microbial functional genes involved in soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling. The network-based analyses showed that long-term fertilization decreased the complexity of networks between plant and microbial functional communities in terms of node numbers, connectivity, network density and the clustering coefficient. Similarly, within the soil microbial community, the strength of microbial associations was also weakened in response to long-term fertilization. Mantel path analysis showed that soil C and N contents were the main factors affecting the network between plants and microbes. Our results indicate that century-long fertilization weakens the plant-microbe networks, which is important in improving our understanding of grassland ecosystem functions and stability under long-term agriculture management.

The contribution of spatial mass effects to plant diversity in arable fields.

In arable fields, plant species richness consistently increases at field edges. This potentially makes the field edge an important habitat for the conservation of the ruderal arable flora (or 'weeds') and the invertebrates and birds it supports. Increased diversity and abundance of weeds in crop edges could be owing to either a reduction in agricultural inputs towards the field edge and/or spatial mass effects associated with dispersal from the surrounding landscape.We contend that the diversity of weed species in an arable field is a combination of resident species, that can persist under the intense selection pressure of regular cultivation and agrochemical inputs (typically more ruderal species), and transient species that rely on regular dispersal from neighbouring habitats (characterised by a more 'competitive' ecological strategy).We analysed a large dataset of conventionally managed arable fields in the UK to study the effect of the immediate landscape on in-field plant diversity and abundance and to quantify the contribution of spatial mass effects to plant diversity in arable fields in the context of the ecological strategy of the resulting community.We demonstrated that the decline in diversity with distance into an arable field is highly dependent on the immediate landscape, indicating the important role of spatial mass effects in explaining the increased species richness at field edges in conventionally managed fields.We observed an increase in the proportion of typical arable weeds away from the field edge towards the centre. This increase was dependent on the immediate landscape and was associated with a higher proportion of more competitive species, with a lower fidelity to arable habitats, at the field edge. Synthesis and applications. Conserving the ruderal arable plant community, and the invertebrates and birds that use it as a resource, in conventionally managed arable fields typically relies on the targeted reduction of fertilisers and herbicides in so-called 'conservation headlands'. The success of these options will depend on the neighbouring habitat and boundary. They should be placed along margins where the potential for ingress of competitive species, that may become dominant in the absence of herbicides, is limited. This will enhance ecosystem services delivered by the ruderal flora and reduce the risk of competitive species occurring in the crop.

What makes a weed a weed? A large-scale evaluation of arable weeds through a functional lens.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Despite long-term research efforts, a comprehensive perspective on the ecological and functional properties determining plant weediness is still lacking. We investigated here key functional attributes of arable weeds compared to non-weed plants, at large spatial scale. METHODS: We used an intensive survey of plant communities in cultivated and non-cultivated habitats to define a pool of plants occurring in arable fields (weeds) and one of plants occurring only in open non-arable habitats (non-weeds) in France. We compared the two pools based on nine functional traits and three functional spaces (LHS, reproductive and resource requirement hypervolumes). Within the weed pool, we quantified the trait variation of weeds along a continuum of specialization to arable fields. KEY RESULTS: Weeds were mostly therophytes and had higher specific leaf area, earlier and longer flowering, and higher affinity for nutrient-rich, sunny and dry environments compared to non-weeds, although functional spaces of weeds and non-weeds largely overlapped. When fidelity to arable fields increased, the spectrum of weed ecological strategies decreased as did the overlap with non-weeds, especially for the resource requirement hypervolume. CONCLUSIONS: Arable weeds constitute a delimited pool defined by a trait syndrome providing tolerance to the ecological filters of arable fields (notably, regular soil disturbances and fertilization). The identification of such a syndrome is of great interest to predict the weedy potential of newly established alien plants. An important reservoir of plants may also become weeds after changes in agricultural practices, considering the large overlap between weeds and non-weeds.

Erratum: "Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1289/EHP173.].

The implications of spatially variable pre-emergence herbicide efficacy for weed management.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of pre-emergence herbicides within fields is spatially variable as a consequence of soil heterogeneity. We quantified the effect of soil organic matter on the efficacy of two pre-emergence herbicides, flufenacet and pendimethalin, against Alopecurus myosuroides and investigated the implications of variation in organic matter for weed management using a crop-weed competition model. RESULTS: Soil organic matter played a critical role in determining the level of control achieved. The high organic matter soil had more surviving weeds with higher biomass than the low organic matter soil. In the absence of competition, surviving plants recovered to produce the same amount of seed as if no herbicide had been applied. The competition model predicted that weeds surviving pre-emergence herbicides could compensate for sublethal effects even when competing with the crop. The ED50 (median effective dose) was higher for weed seed production than seedling mortality or biomass. This difference was greatest on high organic matter soil. CONCLUSION: These results show that the application rate of herbicides should be adjusted to account for within-field variation in soil organic matter. The results from the modelling emphasised the importance of crop competition in limiting the capacity of weeds surviving pre-emergence herbicides to compensate and replenish the seedbank. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition.

With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop/weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modeling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Engineering a plant community to deliver multiple ecosystem services.

The sustainable delivery of multiple ecosystem services requires the management of functionally diverse biological communities. In an agricultural context, an emphasis on food production has often led to a loss of biodiversity to the detriment of other ecosystem services such as the maintenance of soil health and pest regulation. In scenarios where multiple species can be grown together, it may be possible to better balance environmental and agronomic services through the targeted selection of companion species. We used the case study of legume-based cover crops to engineer a plant community that delivered the optimal balance of six ecosystem services: early productivity, regrowth following mowing, weed suppression, support of invertebrates, soil fertility building (measured as yield of following crop), and conservation of nutrients in the soil. An experimental species pool of 12 cultivated legume species was screened for a range of functional traits and ecosystem services at five sites across a geographical gradient in the United Kingdom. All possible species combinations were then analyzed, using a process-based model of plant competition, to identify the community that delivered the best balance of services at each site. In our system, low to intermediate levels of species richness (one to four species) that exploited functional contrasts in growth habit and phenology were identified as being optimal. The optimal solution was determined largely by the number of species and functional diversity represented by the starting species pool, emphasizing the importance of the initial selection of species for the screening experiments. The approach of using relationships between functional traits and ecosystem services to design multifunctional biological communities has the potential to inform the design of agricultural systems that better balance agronomic and environmental services and meet the current objective of European agricultural policy to maintain viable food production in the context of the sustainable management of natural resources.

Over 150 years of long-term fertilization alters spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity.

UNLABELLED: Spatial scaling is a critical issue in ecology, but how anthropogenic activities like fertilization affect spatial scaling is poorly understood, especially for microbial communities. Here, we determined the effects of long-term fertilization on the spatial scaling of microbial functional diversity and its relationships to plant diversity in the 150-year-old Park Grass Experiment, the oldest continuous grassland experiment in the world. Nested samples were taken from plots with contrasting inorganic fertilization regimes, and community DNAs were analyzed using the GeoChip-based functional gene array. The slopes of microbial gene-area relationships (GARs) and plant species-area relationships (SARs) were estimated in a plot receiving nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) and a control plot without fertilization. Our results indicated that long-term inorganic fertilization significantly increased both microbial GARs and plant SARs. Microbial spatial turnover rates (i.e., z values) were less than 0.1 and were significantly higher in the fertilized plot (0.0583) than in the control plot (0.0449) (P < 0.0001). The z values also varied significantly with different functional genes involved in carbon (C), N, P, and sulfur (S) cycling and with various phylogenetic groups (archaea, bacteria, and fungi). Similarly, the plant SARs increased significantly (P < 0.0001), from 0.225 in the control plot to 0.419 in the fertilized plot. Soil fertilization, plant diversity, and spatial distance had roughly equal contributions in shaping the microbial functional community structure, while soil geochemical variables contributed less. These results indicated that long-term agricultural practice could alter the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity. IMPORTANCE: Determining the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity and its response to human activities is important but challenging in microbial ecology. Most studies to date are based on different sites that may not be truly comparable or on short-term perturbations, and hence, the results observed could represent transient responses. This study examined the spatial patterns of microbial communities in response to different fertilization regimes at the Rothamsted Research Experimental Station, which has become an invaluable resource for ecologists, environmentalists, and soil scientists. The current study is the first showing that long-term fertilization has dramatic impacts on the spatial scaling of microbial communities. By identifying the spatial patterns in response to long-term fertilization and their underlying mechanisms, this study makes fundamental contributions to predictive understanding of microbial biogeography.

A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe.

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions.

Trophic links between functional groups of arable plants and beetles are stable at a national scale.

1. There is an urgent need to accurately model how environmental change affects the wide-scale functioning of ecosystems, but advances are hindered by a lack of knowledge of how trophic levels are linked across space. It is unclear which theoretical approach to take to improve modelling of such interactions, but evidence is gathering that linking species responses to their functional traits can increase understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Currently, there are no quantitative studies testing how this approach might improve models of multiple, trophically interacting species, at wide spatial scales. 2. Arable weeds play a foundational role in linking food webs, providing resources for many taxa, including carabid beetles that feed on their seeds and weed-associated invertebrate prey. Here, we model associations between weeds and carabids across farmland in Great Britain (GB), to test the hypothesis that wide-scale trophic links between these groups are structured by their species functional traits. 3. A network of c. 250 arable fields, covering four crops and most lowland areas of GB, was sampled for weed, carabid and invertebrate taxa over 3 years. Data sets of these groups were closely matched in time and space, and each contained numerous species with a range of eco-physiological traits. The consistency of trophic linkages between multiple taxa sharing functional traits was tested within multivariate and log-linear models. 4. Robust links were established between the functional traits of taxa and their trophic interactions. Autumn-germinating, small-seeded weeds were associated with smaller, spring-breeding carabids, more specialised in seed feeding, whereas spring-germinating, large-seeded weeds were associated with a range of larger, autumn-breeding omnivorous carabids. These relationships were strong and dynamic, being independent of changes in invertebrate food resources and consistent across sample dates, crops and regions of GB. 5. We conclude that, in at least one system of interacting taxa, functional traits can be used to predict consistent, wide-scale trophic links. This conceptual approach is useful for assessing how perturbations affecting lower trophic levels are ramified throughout ecosystems and could be used to assess how environmental change affects a wider range of secondary consumers.